Patient capital
I was impressed to see last week that the UK equity manager
Neil Woodford has raised a record £800m to launch his new investment trust
focusing on early-stage companies, having originally set out to raise £200m.
The launch of the Woodford Patient Capital Trust is the largest of any UK-based
listed fund and is testament to the pulling power of Mr Woodford, who became
the UK’s best-known equity manager during his 30 years at Invesco Perpetual
before setting up on his own.
Patient Capital intends to focus on companies whose offering
is based on intellectual property; Woodford has a record of investing in
unquoted biotechnology companies. The goal is to fully deploying its capital
within one to two years of launch. Once this is achieved, the fund will hold 50
to 100 stocks, of which 75% will be invested in early-stage companies; the rest
will consist of mature companies.
The new fund is potentially a big boost for the UK life
sciences industry, which has shown signs of a revival over the last year or so,
as evidenced by successful flotations of companies such as Horizon Discovery
and Circassia. However, this is dwarfed by developments in the US where the New
York Stock Exchange Arca biotech index has risen by over 200% since the start
of 2011, easily outpacing the S&P 500, which has grown 64%. At this rate,
it will not be long before the cumulative market capitalisation of US biotech
companies tops $1tn.
For some, the exuberance is eerily familiar to the bull
market that preceded the biotech crash of 2000. Yet it may be different this
time. Then, investors were betting on the promise of genomic science, which
failed to immediately live up to the hype. Now, however, they are investing in
more advanced treatments as the scientific breakthroughs of the past decade
reach commercialisation.
The US life sciences industry has matured. In 2001, the
cumulative market capitalisation of the top five biotech groups was $82bn. Now
Gilead, Amgen, Biogen, Celgene and Regeneron are worth over $500bn combined.
Gilead is bigger than many of the best-known names in pharma, including
GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi and Bristol-Myers Squibb, while Biogen is larger than
AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly.
There are concerns that the US market is now in a bubble
with stocks significantly overvalued and poised for a big fall when the bubble
bursts. Woodford has been quoted as saying that he thinks this might be the
case in some parts of the quoted US biotech sector but interestingly he noted
in a recent interview with The Daily Telegraph that the valuations of unquoted
British biotech companies are at bargain-basement levels.
If Woodford is right, investing in such companies will
expose his new fund to the biotech boom while insulating it from the
much-feared and discussed possibility of a bust. The flip side of such optimism
is that if a crash slows the conveyor belt ferrying biotechs to big-ticket
partnerships, buyouts and IPOs, early-stage British biotechs may find it harder
to find capital when they need to graduate to large clinical trials.
I certainly hope that Woodford’s analysis is correct, both
for the sake of the UK life science industry and also from a personal
perspective as I have subscribed for shares in the Woodford Patient Capital
Trust.
Labels: Biotech, investment